TIMING / S&P 500
Same level. Different hour.
An early band contact gives the session a different context.
51.5%Early first touch → 1.5σ
20.9%Later first touch → 1.5σ
After an early first 1σ contact, the S&P 500 reached 1.5σ on 51.5% of those sessions. Following a later first contact, the rate was 20.9%. The corresponding 2σ rates were 18.5% and 4.4%.
READING THE FINDING
The first hour puts an expanding move in context. A contact is measured with minute highs and lows; it does not require a closing-price confirmation. Early means the first hour of the US cash session, with daylight-saving changes respected.